ROME — A new analysis from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warns that the strengthening El Niño weather pattern could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity by late 2027.
With the climate phenomenon expected to peak between September and December 2026, severe droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures are threatening vulnerable communities already struggling with poverty and conflict. Across 45 analyzed countries, total food-insecure populations are projected to surge by 22%, rising from 225 million to 274 million people.
Central America & Caribbean region is projected to face the sharpest proportional increase (83.1%), affecting over 16 million people. 18 million people (26% increase) face severe risks due to heavy reliance on rain-fed subsistence agriculture in East and Southern Africa.
In Asia and the Pacific, an estimated 8.2 million additional people are expected to face acute food insecurity. While in West and Central Africa, food insecurity is projected to rise by 12%, impacting nearly 6 million more individuals.
In response, the WFP is ramping up preparedness efforts across more than 50 countries in coordination with partners like the FAO and OCHA. Since May, the agency has deployed over $14 million in anticipatory funding across nations including South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala, and El Salvador to support 500,000 people.
Officials emphasize the cost-effectiveness of early intervention: historical data indicates that every $1 invested in anticipatory programs saves between $3 and $7 in future response costs and avoided losses. The WFP and FAO are urging the international community to increase financial support to protect vulnerable livelihoods before emergencies escalate further.
