OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to maintain a comfortable national advantage over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, entering their second straight week with a double-digit lead, according to the latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies.
The survey shows the Liberal Party holding an 11-point lead among decided and leaning voters, backed by broad personal approval for Carney. Meanwhile, the Opposition Conservatives face ongoing pressure over economic affordability while working to broaden their regional appeal.
When including all respondents, the Liberals lead with 38% support compared to 27% for the Conservatives. The NDP sits at 11%, the Bloc Québécois at 5%, the Greens at 2%, and the PPC at 1%. A notable 15% of voters remain undecided.
"This is still a strong Liberal lead, but the ballot movement is modest," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "The Liberals are down one point from last week to 43%, the Conservatives are up one point to 32%, and the NDP is unchanged at 13%. That narrows the Liberal lead from 13 points to 11 points."
"The broader point is that the Liberals have now held a double-digit national lead for two consecutive weeks. This week does not look like a new Liberal surge; it looks like a stable Liberal advantage after last week's Conservative slide."
Prime Minister Carney’s personal approval rating climbed to 60% in the latest survey. His support is strongest in Quebec (76%), British Columbia (64%), and Atlantic Canada (63%). Alberta remains his primary obstacle, where 39% approve and 54% disapprove.
Conversely, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre saw his favourable rating tick up one point to 35%, while his unfavourable rating held steady at 53%. Poilievre commands dominant regional support in Alberta (74% favourable) and the Prairies (56%). However, his favorability drops in key battlegrounds: 34% in Ontario, 32% in British Columbia, 27% in Atlantic Canada, and 17% in Quebec.
"Poilievre's favourable number is up one point to 35%, but his unfavourable number remains at 53%," Valentin noted. "That is the least bad version of the Conservative story this week: he improves slightly on favourability, but remains deeply underwater."
NDP Leader Avi Lewis returned to a net-positive approval rating, registering 31% favourable and 29% unfavourable, with 19% unsure and 21% unfamiliar. Lewis maintains key momentum among younger demographics. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the NDP garners 25% support—closely trailing the Liberals at 34% and Conservatives at 26%. In British Columbia, Lewis holds a 45% approval rating, with his party polling at 21%.
Despite the polling gap, the Official Opposition is focusing its message heavily on inflation and the cost of living. Following news that annual inflation reached 3.0 per cent—50 per cent above the Bank of Canada's target—Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre launched a sharp critique of the prime minister's economic policy.
“In March, Prime Minister Carney told Canadians that ‘Affordability is the best it has been in over a decade.’ Since then, the costs of Carney have kept climbing with inflation rising to 3.0 per cent,” Poilievre stated. “Energy is driving the surge: Gas prices have skyrocketed 25.7 per cent in the past year, while energy costs are up 16.6 per cent.”
Poilievre pointed to food price increases—including fresh fruit up 6.1 per cent year-over-year, fresh vegetables up 3.9 per cent, and beef up 12.4 per cent—demanding that Ottawa cancel a planned post-Labour Day gas tax increase. Instead, the Conservatives are proposing a temporary suspension of all federal gas taxes until Canada Day, estimating a savings of 25 cents per litre.
Deputy Leader Melissa Lantsman echoed the economic critique, pointing to broader structural drag.
“A year and a half ago, Mark Carney promised that he would deliver the fastest-growing economy in the G7,” Lantsman said. “Since Q1 of 2025... Canada’s economy shrank by 0.1 per cent under Carney. Higher prices aren’t just leaving families with less money, it’s pushing more of them to food banks... It’s time for real economic growth that turns rhetoric into reality.”
The Liaison Strategies survey polled a random sample of 1,526 Canadians between August 2 and August 15, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology via random digit dialling (RDD) across landline and cell networks. The data was weighted to 2021 Census targets. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.
